Construct a conditional release forecast with unresolved outcomes
A hands-on PSM-I lab. You produce the real artefact and 10 automated checks verify it behaves the way the exam expects.
Try this labAll PSM-I practice
- Certification
- PSM-I
- Format
- Structured configuration
- Difficulty
- hard
- Estimated time
- 40 min
- Automated checks
- 10
The brief
Repair release-forecast.json. history:[{ref,include,reasonRef}] must cover every source period, retaining all comparable Done observations including R4=0 and justified exclusions. scope:{goal,ordered:[item IDs],unitBoundary} preserves the source Product Goal and compatible Done unit, selects required outcomes and orders each selected dependency before its dependent. assumption:{strategy,sourceRef,factors:[three ratios],conditional} selects exact C0/C1 factors and retains conditional:true. trajectories:[{draws:[three historical refs],completed:[three cumulative counts],finish:period or null}] covers all64 equally weighted with-replacement sequences exactly once. For each period floor the source count×factor and complete ordered ready items. Stop at the first blocked item; do not carry unused capacity or count unfinished work as Done. report:{probabilityByPeriod:[{period,probability}],quantiles:{p50,p85,p95},unresolvedProbability,targetPeriod,targetConfidence,recommendation,assumptionCost,claim,refreshAfter,refreshSource,refreshAction}. Reconcile CDF, nearest reaching quantiles, unresolved mass and source strategy cost against the full64 population. Unreached quantiles are null. Retain targetConfidence0.85; use the actual chosen target-period CDF and coherent scope for the recommendation. A broader valid scope may honestly require inspection rather than support the target. Retain claim conditional-empirical; refreshAfter1, refreshSource new-done-period-and-capacity, refreshAction reconcile-units-and-recompute. No model sample, confidence label or support arrangement guarantees delivery or creates a commitment. Rows may be reordered without changing meaning; scope order is a real forecast assumption. Save partial progress and repair without Reset.
What the checks verify
Your work is graded on 10 independent properties, not on matching one reference answer.
- Finite uniquely identified evidence and trajectory records preserve typed uncertainty fields.
- The population retains all comparable Done observations and source-supported exclusions.
- Ordered selected scope preserves the Product Goal, compatible units and prerequisite closure.
- Conditional capacity factors retain the selected strategy's source support.
- All equally weighted source draw sequences remain in the empirical population.
- Cumulative completions and finishes follow actual capacity, ordered dependencies and availability.
- CDF, quantiles, unresolved probability and strategy cost reflect the complete conditional population.
- The recommendation responds to actual target support under the source confidence policy.
- The model explicitly retains conditional assumptions without manufacturing future certainty.
- Forecast learning responds promptly to actual new Done throughput and capacity evidence.
Where this sits in the PSM-I blueprint
- Domain
- Managing Products with Agility
- Objective
- Forecasting and Release Planning
- Skill
- Evidence-Based Forecasts
Part of PSM-I preparation
Labs are written by ExamNova to teach the decisions the exam tests. They are not reproductions of vendor lab content.